Thinking about Oscar

Best Picture

Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby has all the momentum going down the stretch. The film goes nationwide tomorrow, critics adore it, and it has a surprise plot twist. While The Aviator received 11 nominations, there just hasn't been the same buz about it there has been with Baby. Sideways could be in a much better position to challenge Baby for the bald guy. Ray and Finding Neverland are longshots.

Best Actor

This one is a much tougher race to call. Leonardo DiCaprio took the Golden Globe, but Jamie Foxx portrayal of Ray Charles and Don Cheadle's turn in Hotel Rwanda are just as praiseworthy. Clint Eastwood and Johnny Depp bring up the rear.

Best Actress

Like DiCaprio, Annette Bening won the Golden Globe but there's just no getting around the hype surrounding Million Dollar Baby so don't give Hilary Swank a standing eight count just yet. She's won once before. A personal favorite, albeit a real longshot, is Catalina Sandino Moreno who was outstanding in Maria Full of Grace. Imelda Stauton and Kate Winslet will miss out for sure.

Best Supporting Actor

Thomas Haden Church appears to have a pretty good beat on this award but Alan Alda's lifetime of work could push him aside. Academy voters often swing towards older actors and actresses in this regard. Jamie Foxx could pick up some make-up votes in this category, and he was very good in Collateral, but let's face it, Collateral wasn't very good. Clive Owen and Morgan Freeman will just have to smile gracefully.

Best Supporting Actress

My favorite? Hands down it's Natalie Portman. Virgina Madsen is second, with Cate Blanchett, Sophie Okonedo, and Laura Linney rounding out the list in order of preference.

Best Animated Feature

The Incredibles.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sideways will probably get this award, but again, don't underestimate the attention Million Dollar Baby is getting right now. All five nominees are outstanding adaptations. Any one of them could win the Oscar on any given year. This is probably the toughest category to call this year.

Best Original Screenplay

I don't think there's anyway this award won't go to Hotel Rwanda. But, if it doesn't, then it will probably go to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

Best Director

Will Clint Eastwood win again? Or will The Academy throw Martin Scorsese a bone? This could go either way. I'd put the odds 60/40 in favor of Clint simply because everybody seems so indifferent about The Aviator.

Well, that's my take. For whatever it's worth. Last year the wife beat me with her picks so that shows what I know.